Do Democrats or Republicans Trade Stocks Better?
Neither party’s disclosed stock purchases beat the S&P 500 trade for trade, and which party looks better depends on how you count. As of October 30, 2026, the 9,033 stock purchases disclosed by Democrats in Congress moved +3.39% on average over the 90 days after the trade, against +4.85% for the S&P 500 over the same windows. The 3,540 disclosed by Republicans moved +5.60% against +6.07%. Counting each member once instead of each trade, the median Democrat finished 0.15 points behind the index and the median Republican 0.20 points behind it.
Key numbers
- As of October 30, 2026, the 9,033 stock purchases disclosed by Democrats in Congress moved +3.39% on average in the 90 days after the trade, against +4.85% for the S&P 500 over the same windows, a difference of -1.46 points (Coldpine).
- As of October 30, 2026, the 3,540 stock purchases disclosed by Republicans in Congress moved +5.60% on average in the 90 days after the trade, against +6.07% for the S&P 500 over the same windows, a difference of -0.47 points (Coldpine).
- 43.0% of Democrats’ disclosed stock purchases and 43.1% of Republicans’ beat the S&P 500 over the following 90 days (12,573 purchases, Coldpine, as of October 30, 2026).
- Among members of Congress with five or more priced stock purchases, 11 of 23 Democrats (48%) and 22 of 48 Republicans (46%) averaged a better 90-day result than the S&P 500 (Coldpine, as of October 30, 2026).
- The median Democrat in Congress with five or more priced stock purchases finished 0.15 points behind the S&P 500 over 90 days, and the median Republican 0.20 points behind it (Coldpine, as of October 30, 2026).
- One household, Rohit Khanna (D-CA), made 7,497 of the 9,033 priced stock purchases disclosed by Democrats in Congress (83%); without it, Democrats’ purchases moved +4.86% against +5.61% for the S&P 500 (Coldpine, as of October 30, 2026).
Trade by trade
Every disclosed stock purchase is measured from the first close on or after the trade date to the first close 90 days later, next to the S&P 500 (SPY) over the identical window. The first row for each party counts every purchase equally. The second leaves out the party’s single largest filer, because one household’s accounts can be most of a party’s count.
| Purchases by | Purchases | Avg 90-day move | S&P 500, same windows | Difference | Beat S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats (35 members) | 9,033 | +3.39% | +4.85% | -1.46 pts | 43.0% |
| Republicans (69 members) | 3,540 | +5.60% | +6.07% | -0.47 pts | 43.1% |
| Democrats, without the largest filer | 1,536 | +4.86% | +5.61% | -0.75 pts | |
| Republicans, without the largest filer | 2,605 | +6.32% | +6.37% | -0.05 pts |
The largest Democratic filer is Rohit Khanna (D-CA), with 7,497 of the party’s 9,033 priced purchases (83%). The largest Republican filer is Michael T. McCaul (R-TX), with 935 of the party’s 3,540 priced purchases (26%). A party’s trade-weighted figure is therefore partly a description of one household’s accounts. Without those two filers, Democrats’ purchases sit 0.75 points behind the index and Republicans’ 0.05 points behind it. Many of the largest filers’ trades are made in spouse and dependent-child accounts; see whose trades they are.
Member by member
Counting each member once removes the weight of the busiest filers. Of the 71 Democrats and Republicans with at least five priced purchases, 33 (46%) averaged a better 90-day result than the S&P 500: 11 of 23 Democrats and 22 of 48 Republicans. The average and the median can point in different directions, because a few members with a handful of purchases sit far from the middle. The median is the steadier figure.
| Party | Members, 5+ purchases | Beat S&P 500 | Median member | Average member | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 23 | 11 (48%) | -0.15 pts | +2.29 pts | John Fetterman+25.50 pts, 7 purchases | April McClain Delaney-6.16 pts, 177 purchases |
| Republicans | 48 | 22 (46%) | -0.20 pts | -1.02 pts | Mark Green+15.51 pts, 10 purchases | John McGuire-14.92 pts, 12 purchases |
Differences are in percentage points against the S&P 500 over the same 90-day windows. The highest and lowest members in each party are there to show the spread, and several rest on few purchases. For the full member ranking, see which members of Congress actually beat the market, and for Congress as a whole, does Congress beat the stock market.
What this does and does not show
Party is a weak predictor here. The gap between the two parties is small next to the gap between members inside either one, and it changes direction with the frame: by trade, by member average, or by median member. The same pattern shows up in other cuts of the record. On late filing and on sector mix, a handful of large filers set each party’s total. A 90-day result describes what a stock did after a disclosed purchase. It is a past outcome, it says nothing about why a trade was made, and it is not evidence of wrongdoing by any member.
Methodology and honest caveats
The base is 12,575 disclosed purchases with a ticker we have price history for, traded between November 29, 2022 and July 30, 2026, each with a full 90 days elapsed as of the latest price bar (October 30, 2026). Sales are left out, since a sale has no clean return to measure. Every purchase counts once whatever its size: filings report amounts in ranges, so nothing here is dollar-weighted and none of it is a portfolio return. Funds and assets without a listed ticker are not measured. Party is the one on the member’s roster record, and independents are too few to show. The member table includes members with five or more priced purchases. How we parse filings and price trades is set out in our methodology. Figures are computed live and update as new filings and prices arrive, so they may differ from the ones quoted the day this was published.
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Coldpine is a publisher of intelligence on public Congressional disclosures. Return figures are computed from the public filings and market prices and describe past outcomes only; they are not evidence of wrongdoing by any member. This is informational only, not investment advice, and not a suggestion to buy, sell, or copy anyone’s trades.